The First Anchor Wins

“How about $1,200?”

“No, that’s too much.”

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But something has already happened.

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Even though you said “too much,”
your mind is already working around that number.

$1,000?
Maybe $900?

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You’re no longer thinking:

what should this actually be?

You’re thinking:

how far away from $1,200?

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That’s the anchoring effect.

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Experienced negotiators know this.

They don’t react to the first number.

They step back and ask:

what is this actually worth?

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And this shows up at work too.

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I’ve seen many technical projects — refactors, redeployments — initially described as “about a week of work.”

But once someone goes into the details, it turns out to be a few hours.

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The first estimate wasn’t wrong on purpose.

It was just a quick starting point.

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But if no one challenges it,

the thinking stays at that level.

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That’s the challenge for a technical manager:

Go into the details.
Understand what’s actually there.

Don’t let the first estimate anchor your judgment.

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Even if you question the estimate,
you might still be thinking around it.

That’s the anchoring effect.